This briefing paper examines the real costs of the UK's energy choices over the period 2025 to 2050, challenging the political case for maximising North Sea oil and gas production. Using government and industry's own data, including OBR price forecasts, NSTA production scenarios and Ofgem regulatory filings, the paper finds that a fossil-intensive pathway would cost UK consumers an estimated £190 to 335bn more than continued cleantech investment, while still leaving the country importing around 80% of its gas by 2050. Far from delivering energy security, new North Sea licences reduce import dependency by a maximum of 2% in any given year.
The paper sets out six key findings covering production volumes, hidden consumer costs, refining infrastructure, and the growing economic strength of the UK's clean energy sector, which directly employs over 300,000 people and generated £77bn in turnover in 2024. It concludes with three policy recommendations: ending the North Sea distraction, building cross-party consensus to accelerate the cleantech transition, and committing to decoupling electricity prices from gas.
